Integrating Batteries in the Future Swiss Electricity Supply System: A Consequential Environmental Assessment

Stationary batteries are projected to play a role in the electricity system of Switzerland after 2030. By enabling the integration of surplus production from intermittent renewables, energy storage units displace electricity production from different sources and potentially create environmental benefits. Nevertheless, batteries can also cause substantial environmental impacts during their manufacturing process and through the extraction of raw materials. A prospective consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) of lithium metal polymer and lithium‐ion stationary batteries is undertaken to quantify potential environmental benefits and drawbacks. Projections are integrated into the LCA model: Energy scenarios are used to obtain marginal electricity supply mixes, and projections about the battery performances and the recycling process are sourced from the literature. The roles of key parameters and methodological choices in the results are systematically investigated. The results demonstrate that the displacement of marginal electricity sources determines the environmental implications of using batteries. In the reference scenario representing current policy, the displaced electricity mix is dominated by natural gas combined cycle units. In this scenario, the use of batteries generates environmental benefits in 12 of the 16 impact categories assessed. Nevertheless, there is a significant reduction in achievable environmental benefits when batteries are integrated into the power supply system in a low‐carbon scenario because the marginal electricity production, displaced using batteries, already has a reduced environmental impact. The direct impacts of batteries mainly originate from upstream manufacturing processes, which consume electricity and mining activities related to the extraction of materials such as copper and bauxite.     

Allometry of fine roots in forest ecosystems

Theoretical predictions regarding fine root production are needed in many ecosystem models but are lacking. Here, we expand the classic pipe model to fine roots and predict isometric scaling relationships between leaf and fine root biomass and among all major biomass production components of individual trees. We also predict that fine root production scales more slowly against increases in leaf production across global forest ecosystems at the stand level. Using meta‐analysis, we show fine root biomass scales isometrically against leaf biomass both at the individual tree and stand level. However, despite isometric scaling between stem and coarse root production, fine root production scales against leaf production with a slope of about 0.8 at the stand level, which probably results from more rapid increase of turnover rate in leaves than in fine roots. These analyses help to improve our understandings of allometric theory and controls of belowground C processes.     

Predicting coral community recovery using multi‐species population dynamics models

Predicting whether, how, and to what degree communities recover from disturbance remain major challenges in ecology. To predict recovery of coral communities we applied field survey data of early recovery dynamics to a multi‐species integral projection model that captured key demographic processes driving coral population trajectories, notably density‐dependent larval recruitment. After testing model predictions against field observations, we updated the model to generate projections of future coral communities. Our results indicated that communities distributed across an island landscape followed different recovery trajectories but would reassemble to pre‐disturbed levels of coral abundance, composition, and size, thus demonstrating persistence in the provision of reef habitat and other ecosystem services. Our study indicates that coral community dynamics are predictable when accounting for the interplay between species life‐history, environmental conditions, and density‐dependence. We provide a quantitative framework for evaluating the ecological processes underlying community trajectory and characteristics important to ecosystem functioning.     

An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder

Climate models forecast increasing climatic variation and more extreme events, which could increase the variability in animal demographic rates. More variable demographic rates generally lead to lower population growth and can be detrimental to wild populations, especially if the particular demographic rates affected are those to which population growth is most sensitive. We investigated the population dynamics of a metapopulation of 25 colonies of a semi-arid bird species, the sociable weaver Philetairus socius, and how it was influenced by seasonal weather during 1993–2014. We constructed an integrated population model which estimated population sizes similar to observed population counts, and allowed us to estimate annual fecundity and recruitment. Variance in fecundity contributed most to variance in population growth, which showed no trend over time. No weather variables explained overall demographic variation at the population level. However, a separate analysis of the largest colony showed a clear decline with a high extinction probability (0.05 to 0.33) within 5 years after the study period. In this colony, juvenile survival was lower when summers were hot, and adult survival was lower when winters were cold. Rainfall was also negatively correlated with adult survival. These weather effects could be due to increased physiological demands of thermoregulation and rainfall-induced breeding activity. Our results suggest that the dynamics of the population on the whole are buffered against current weather variation, as individual colonies apparently react in different ways. However, if more and increasingly extreme weather events synchronize colony dynamics, they are likely to have negative effects.     

西藏唐北地区湖泊动态及空间格局预测

本研究评估了西藏唐古拉山以北地区(唐北地区)湖泊动态并预测了湖泊空间格局变化.使用面向对象分类和光谱角向量变化检测方法生成了2000-2015年西藏唐北地区每5年一期的生态系统分布数据.以此为基础,分析了湖泊与其他生态系统之间的转换和空间格局特征,评估了湖泊空间格局的动态及其与相关自然地理因素的关系.通过增强回归树识别了不同因素对湖泊动态的贡献,使用GEOMOD模型预测了湖泊到2030年的空间变化.结果表明:唐北地区在2000-2015年间湖泊增加了14.2%,是唐北地区生态系统变化的主要形式之一.区域内15个面积大于10 km2的湖泊有10个增加,另有5个减少,且缩减量较低.通过空间格局分析发现,唐北地区湖泊斑块表现为面积和数量同时增加,大斑块面积比重略有上升.扩张幅度高的湖泊多分布于海拔高、坡度大、温度低、降水少、距离冰川近的区域.位于现有湖泊周边、温度低、降水少、坡度小的区域转变为湖泊的几率较高.根据过去15年的趋势,到2030年,唐北地区湖泊将继续增加119 km2,主要变化形式从大湖扩张转变为小型水面扩张.     

基于土地利用变化情景的生态系统服务价值评估: 以钱江源国家公园体制试点区为例

土地利用变化是生物多样性与生态系统服务变化的主要原因之一。评估土地利用变化对生物多样与生态系统服务影响对于政府决策具有重要作用。钱江源国家公园体制试点区是钱塘江的源头, 也是国家的重点生态功能区。本研究以钱江源国家公园体制试点区为研究区, 首先设计自然发展情景、规划情景、生态保护情景和开发利用情景等4种2025年不同土地利用变化情景, 随后采用InVEST模型和CLUE-S模型分析不同情景下钱江源国家公园水资源供给、涵养水源、固碳释氧、土壤保持、环境净化和生境质量等生态系统服务及其价值变化。结果表明: (1)核心保护区和生态保育区的生态系统服务价值占钱江源国家公园总价值的88.30%。(2)生态保护情景下钱江源国家公园生态系统服务价值最高, 有129.17亿元; 规划情景下生态系统服务价值次之, 有126.92亿元。(3)规划情景下钱江源国家公园水资源供给服务优于生态保护情景, 其他生态系统服务则次于生态保护情景。考虑到钱江源国家公园为下游提供重要的水资源这一功能, 将规划情景作为试点区2025年最优的土地利用变化情景。     

未来气候变化对不同国家茶适宜分布区的影响

茶是对气候变化敏感的重要经济作物, 评价全球气候变化对茶分布和生产的影响对相关国家经济发展和茶农的生计至关重要。本研究基于全球858个茶分布点和6个气候因子数据, 利用物种分布模型预测全球茶的潜在适宜分布区及其在2070年的不同温室气体排放情景(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下的变化。结果表明: 当前茶在五大洲均有适宜分布区, 主要集中在亚洲、非洲和南美洲, 并且最冷季平均温和最暖季降水量主导了茶的分布。预计2070年, 茶的适宜分布区变化在不同的大洲、国家和气候情景间将存在差异。具体来说, 茶的适宜分布区总面积将会减少, 减少的区域主要位于低纬度地区, 而中高纬度地区的适宜分布区将扩张, 由此可能导致茶的适宜分布区向北移动; 重要的产茶国中, 阿根廷、缅甸、越南等茶适宜分布区面积会减少57.8%-95.8%, 而中国和日本的适宜分布面积则会增加2.7%-31.5%。未来全球新增的适宜分布区中, 约有68%的地区土地覆盖类型为自然植被, 因此可能导致新茶树种植园的开垦和自然植被及生物多样性保护产生冲突。     

中国东南部不同海拔亚热带森林中马尾松径向生长对气候的响应

为了解我国东南部亚热带森林不同海拔树木生长对气候响应的差异,建立了福建省武夷山脉东麓2个样点的4个马尾松(Pinus massoniana)轮宽年表,对树木径向生长与气候因子进行了bootstrapped相关分析和线性混合模型(LME)拟合。结果表明,在高海拔地区马尾松径向生长对气候因子年际波动敏感性较强,主要表现为与生长季前冬季光温条件以及生长季内7月降水的正相关,生长-气候关系在不同样点间表现出较强的一致性。线性混合模型可以较好地拟合高海拔树木生长变化,当使用前1年12月平均日最高温、当年1月日照时长和当年7月降雨量3个气候变量进行拟合时,模型解释量达到0.5,其中前1年12月最高温和当年1月日照时数在模型中起到主导作用,累积相对贡献率约占80%,说明生长季前冬季的光热条件是限制高海拔马尾松径向生长最主要的气候因子。因此,我国亚热带地区高海拔的树木径向生长可能对未来气候变化有更强的敏感性,相关森林管理政策的制定需要将此纳入考虑;同时我国亚热带地区高海拔森林中的树木有被用于树轮气候重建的潜力。     

基于奥马哈理论的护理模式 对慢性阻塞性肺疾病患者肺功能及细菌感染率的影响

目的探讨基于奥马哈理论的护理模式对慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)患者肺功能、症状控制、细菌感染率及生活质量的影响。方法选取2018年1月至2019年1月我院收治的134例COPD患者,采用随机数字表法将研究对象分为观察组(n=69)与对照组(n=65),对两组患者住院期间肺功能、症状控制情况、细菌感染率、睡眠情况以及生活质量进行评估和分析。结果观察组患者肺功能情况优于入院时(P0.05)。两组患者泌尿系统感染发生率最高,其次为褥疮创面感染和口腔感染。观察组患者泌尿系感染的发生率低于对照组(P0.05)。两组患者干预后PSQI量表评分和CAT评分均低于入院前,且观察组患者总分低于对照组(均P0.05)。干预后观察组患者SF-36评分均高于对照组(均P0.05)。结论在基于奥马哈理论的护理模式下,COPD患者的肺功能得到加强,继发感染的发生减少,生活质量得到提高。     

斑马鱼作为骨骼疾病模型的研究进展

斑马鱼作为一种优良的动物模型已被广泛应用于人类相关疾病机理及药物筛选的研究。由于斑马鱼骨骼发育过程和调控机制与哺乳动物高度保守,目前已成功构建斑马鱼骨骼疾病模型。本文首先介绍斑马鱼骨骼发育过程和分子调控机制,并对斑马鱼模型骨骼研究的基本方法及在骨骼药物筛选中的研究现状进行分析和总结,以期对斑马鱼作为骨骼疾病模型进行药物筛选或基础研究提供参考。